We are in the midst of an oil supply and demand swing we have never set eyes upon before, Saudi Arabia has put the onus of production cuts in support of the price to others, such as the U.S. shale operators, as it will no longer shoulder the burden of adjustment alone. Lower oil prices will support the lagging global economic expansion.
FACTORS DRIVING DOWN COSTS (Financial Post)
US economic growth averaging 2.3% since mid 2009
China Growth slowing
Minimal growth in the Eurozone
Negative growth in Japan
Output climbing due to US production
Gas mileage getting more efficient
Alternative energy sources growing
Saudis stopped backstopping selling price
LOW COST PRODUCERS
Saudi Arabia (oil costs $20)
UAE
Kuwait
Qatar
Marginal cost for efficient U.S. Shale-oil producers is about $10 -$20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas.
HIGH COST PRODUCERS
Alberta Oilsands
Arctic exploration
deep-water drilling in Brazil
Nigeria
Iran
Mexico
COUNTRIES WHO NEED HIGH OIL PRICES FOR OPERATION
Russia (over 50% of govt revenue derived from oil)
Venezuela (US$125 req'd to stabilize its fiscal situation)
Ecuador
Algeria
Nigeria
Iran
Iraq
Angola
Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget, but it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves which puts it in the best position to survive low prices.
OIL FACTS
Amount of barrels of oil produced per day globally: 84.9M
Amt of world oil supply produce by top 10 suppliers: 64%
OIL ECONOMY FACTS
Amount of energy sector debt in the $1.3T U.S. junk bond market: 16%
Amount of energy bonds issued since 2009: $1.2T
Amount isuued 1995-2008: $622M
Benefit of low oil to global growth in the industrialized world: +0.7 % (US$550 billion)
OPEC FACTS (Financial Post)
Demand for OPEC oil 2014: 29.4M bbl/day
Forecast demand for OPEC oil 2015: 29.1M bbl/day
Forecast demand for OPEC oil 2017: 28.2M bbl/day
Last time demand was less than 28.9M: 2002
OPEC share of the global oil market 2014: 42%
Forecasted market share in 2040: 49%
SAUDI FACTS (Financial Post)
Position of world’s crude oil exporters: 1
Position of world's oil consumers: 7
Domestic oil equivalent demand by 2030: 8M bbl/day (US Dept of Energy)
Growth rate of annual oil consumption: 4%-6%
Forcasted new oil production growth over the next 25 years: 0.6% (International Energy Agency)
TOP 10 OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
M bbl/day for 2012 (Wikipedia)
Russia: 10.1
Saudi Arabia: 9.7
United States: 7.4
China: 4.4
Canada: 3.9
Iran: 3.5
Iraq: 3.4
UAE: 3.1
Venezuela: 3.0
Mexico: 2.9
LINK IMAGE
Oil Rigs
TOP IMAGE
Christo Art Installation 1999
STOCKS
Suncor
Cenovous (The company's operating costs at its two existing oil sands projects are below US$20 per barrel - RBC Capital Markets).
Imperial Oil
FACTORS DRIVING DOWN COSTS (Financial Post)
US economic growth averaging 2.3% since mid 2009
China Growth slowing
Minimal growth in the Eurozone
Negative growth in Japan
Output climbing due to US production
Gas mileage getting more efficient
Alternative energy sources growing
Saudis stopped backstopping selling price
LOW COST PRODUCERS
Saudi Arabia (oil costs $20)
UAE
Kuwait
Qatar
Marginal cost for efficient U.S. Shale-oil producers is about $10 -$20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas.
HIGH COST PRODUCERS
Alberta Oilsands
Arctic exploration
deep-water drilling in Brazil
Nigeria
Iran
Mexico
COUNTRIES WHO NEED HIGH OIL PRICES FOR OPERATION
Russia (over 50% of govt revenue derived from oil)
Venezuela (US$125 req'd to stabilize its fiscal situation)
Ecuador
Algeria
Nigeria
Iran
Iraq
Angola
Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget, but it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves which puts it in the best position to survive low prices.
OIL FACTS
Amount of barrels of oil produced per day globally: 84.9M
Amt of world oil supply produce by top 10 suppliers: 64%
OIL ECONOMY FACTS
Amount of energy sector debt in the $1.3T U.S. junk bond market: 16%
Amount of energy bonds issued since 2009: $1.2T
Amount isuued 1995-2008: $622M
Benefit of low oil to global growth in the industrialized world: +0.7 % (US$550 billion)
OPEC FACTS (Financial Post)
Demand for OPEC oil 2014: 29.4M bbl/day
Forecast demand for OPEC oil 2015: 29.1M bbl/day
Forecast demand for OPEC oil 2017: 28.2M bbl/day
Last time demand was less than 28.9M: 2002
OPEC share of the global oil market 2014: 42%
Forecasted market share in 2040: 49%
SAUDI FACTS (Financial Post)
Position of world’s crude oil exporters: 1
Position of world's oil consumers: 7
Domestic oil equivalent demand by 2030: 8M bbl/day (US Dept of Energy)
Growth rate of annual oil consumption: 4%-6%
Forcasted new oil production growth over the next 25 years: 0.6% (International Energy Agency)
TOP 10 OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
M bbl/day for 2012 (Wikipedia)
Russia: 10.1
Saudi Arabia: 9.7
United States: 7.4
China: 4.4
Canada: 3.9
Iran: 3.5
Iraq: 3.4
UAE: 3.1
Venezuela: 3.0
Mexico: 2.9
LINK IMAGE
Oil Rigs
TOP IMAGE
Christo Art Installation 1999
STOCKS
Suncor
Cenovous (The company's operating costs at its two existing oil sands projects are below US$20 per barrel - RBC Capital Markets).
Imperial Oil
